A Computer Model of the Spread of the Pandemic and its Analysis

Authors

  • Avtandil bardavelidze Department of Computer Technology, Akaki Tsereteli State University Kutaisi, Georgia
  • Irakli Basheleishvili Department of Computer Technology, Akaki Tsereteli State University Kutaisi, Georgia
  • Khatuna Bradvelidze Department of Informatic, Georgian Technical University Tbilisi, Georgia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24203/ijcit.v10i5.165

Keywords:

Pandemic; Computer Model; Matlab; Analysis

Abstract

The paper describes and analyzes a mathematical model of the variable state of the incidence of epidemic diseases, which is of great importance for determining the quantity of vaccines and antiviral drugs to be produced.    The information model according to the system of differential equations of the spread of the pandemic is illustrated in a structural diagram. The model is presented in a vector-matrix form and the state of equilibrium of the model in the spatial state is proved.The model of the spread of the pandemic was developed, whose implementation with a Matlab software package resulted in obtaining the curves of variation of the state. The developed computer model of the incidence of epidemic diseases can be used to make a projection of the number of infected people, as well as intensity of the process of disseminating information and ideas in the community.

References

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. March 21, 2020.

Guan W. J. et coll. (2020) Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China. New England Journal of Medicine, doi : 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

S.E. Dushin, A.V. Krasov, Yu.V. Litvinov. Modeling of the systems and complexes. The training manual/ St. Petersburg: SPBGU ITMO, 2010. 177 p.

Bardavelidze, K., & Bardavelidze, A. Simulation Modeling of a Queuing System in the MATLAB Environment.

Bardavelidze, K., & Bardavelidze, A. (2012, October). Imitation modeling of compatitive market equilibrium. In 2012 6th International Conference on Application of Information and Communication Technologies (AICT) (pp. 1-4). IEEE.

J. Clerk Maxwell, A Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism, 3rd ed., vol. 2

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Published

2021-10-22

How to Cite

bardavelidze, A., Basheleishvili, I., & Bradvelidze, K. . (2021). A Computer Model of the Spread of the Pandemic and its Analysis . International Journal of Computer and Information Technology(2279-0764), 10(5). https://doi.org/10.24203/ijcit.v10i5.165

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